The Global Impact of Demographic Change

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. The world is in the midst of a major demographic transition. This paper examines the implications of such transition over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, other industrial countries, and the developing regions of the world using a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium four-country model containing demographics calibrated to the “medium variant ” of the United Nations population projections. We find that population aging in industrial countries will reduce aggregate growth in these regions over time, but should boost growth in developing countries over the next 20–30 years, as the relative size of their working-age populations increases. Demographic change will also affect saving, investment, and capital flows, implying changes in global trade balances and asset prices. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about future productivity growth an