Predicting range UXO source quantity and its impact on future training

A model has been developed to estimate the source quantity of UXO for use as a source term model within the Army Risk Assessment Modeling System (ARAMS). ARAMS is based on the widely accepted risk paradigm, where exposure and effects assessments are integrated to characterize risk. ARAMS allows the UXO model to be readily used as a component in human and/or ecological health risk characterizations for estimating the mass of explosives that is needed as information to drive media fate/transport models, such as leaching through the vadose zone and runoff into surface waters. Calculated temporal media concentrations are then used within ARAMS to compute exposure and assess effects both current and future. The UXO model provides an estimate of the source quantity of UXO using data from firing range records and other sources. The model is an enhancement of the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) Computed Source Term Release Model. The output from the UXO model can be used with other components of the ARAMS modeling system to compute human and/or ecological health risk from exposure to the UXO and therefore allows site planning and management to be adjusted for range sustainment and future training needs. An added benefit of using ARAMS is that it inherently allows uncertainty to be performed on the UXO model’s input parameters. This paper describes both the development of a model to predict the source quantity of UXO and an example human health risk characterization that shows how the model can be readily used to characterize human health risks associated with exposure to UXO which range management could then use to plan future training activities