The Role of Mechanism in Expectations About the Future: Luck and Skill

Two experiments on decision making explored the role of the mechanism perceived to be generating events. In Experiment 1 participants were told about two identical basketball players who varied in terms of motivation in separate games. Both experienced the same streaks of shot success or failure, and participants predicted the motivated player was more likely to continue the streak in either direction. Predictions of success were related to participants ’ ratings of which player’s shot was more influenced by skill, and perhaps luck. In Experiment 2 we tried to manipulate perceptions of skill and luck by giving participants success at a task over which they either had some or no control. There was evidence that inductions of luck transferred to a new task, but follow-up is needed. Overall our results support the claim that perception of mechanism plays a role in decision making, and the role of skill and luck is a promising domain in which to explore this