MAXIMUM ENTROPY PRODUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS

The global climate system, the ecology of the biosphere, biogeochemical cycling, human society and macroeco-nomics are all very complex processes. The modelling and prediction of these systems is very resource-intensive and subject to considerable uncertainty, for two main rea-sons: (1) there are generally insufficent data available to estimate model parameters; (2) the model dynamics are often inherently unstable. Nevertheless, there are some general principles which may be used to constrain the behaviour of such com-plex systems. One such principle is based on the ideas of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. An iso-lated system in thermodynamic equilibrium will tend to a state of maximum entropy, subject to constraints involving the total energy, chemical composition, etc. This is obviously not the case for the coupled climate-biogeochemical-economic system, which is very much in a non-equilibrium state. However, it has been shown that under certain circumstances, the most probable state such a system may be that of maximum entropy production (MEP), subject, again, to appropriate constraints. This presentation reviews and discusses the applica-tions of the MEP hypothesis, within a historical perspec-tive which includes the development of human activity in northern polar regions. A pointer is given to the effects of predicted climate change on economic activity in north-ern areas, its possible consequences, and implications for public policy