Fatality models for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

The US Geological Survey is adding post-earthquake fatality estimation capability to its Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. PAGER’s goal is to inform early and rapid post-earthquake decisions about humanitarian assistance before ground-truth and news information can be acquired, and to examine hypothetical scenarios for risk-management purposes. In its post-earthquake mode, PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time global earthquake solutions, automatically identifies the important events, and estimates the population exposed to various levels of shaking intensity. To enhance those capabilities, we develop several vulnerability models for estimating shaking-related deaths and other impacts from earthquakes anywhere in the world. Three candidates are discussed here