Spatial and seasonal dynamics of surface soil carbon in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico

We developed a spatially-explicit version of the CENTURY soil model to characterize the storage and flux of soil organic carbon (SOC, 0–30 cm depth) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF), Puerto Rico as a function of climate, vegetation, and soils. The model was driven by monthly estimates of average air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET), which in turn were simulated as a function of elevation, slope, and aspect using a spatially-explicit and validated model (TOPOCLIM) of solar insolation/microclimate in mountainous areas. We simulated forest gross primary productivity (GPP) and distribution of above- and below-ground biomass production using a forest productivity model (TOPOPROD). Output from TOPOCLIM and TOPOPROD models was used to run the CENTURY soil model for 1200 months under current climate conditions and in response to potential global warming. We validated our version of CENTURY soil model using 69 soil samples taken throughout the LEF. Simulated SOC storage agrees reasonably well with the observed storage (R2=0.71). The simulated SOC storage in the top 30 cm within the LEF is highly variable, ranging from approximately 20–230 Mg/ha. The rates of decomposition were especially sensitive to changes in elevation. Carbon release rates due to decomposition were close to carbon assimilation rates and ranged from 0.6–0.96 Mg/ha per year at high elevations to 1.2–1.68 Mg/ha per year at lower elevations. Our simulations indicated that differences in elevation affect decomposition and SOC content primarily by changing microclimate. Finally, we found that a projected warming of 2.0 °C is likely to result in losses of SOC in the lower and higher elevation, but increased storage in the middle elevations in the LEF. © 2002 Elsevie