Beyond Coattails: President Campaign Visits and Congressional Elections

The presidential coattails and surge and decline theories posit that presidential popularity may affect the outcomes of congressional elections. These theories assume presidents play passive roles in congressional elections, likening their influence to that of other parts of the political environment. We ask: What happens when a president actively campaigns for some of his party’s congressional candidates? Using data for the 2002 midterm elections we test several hypotheses related to President Bush’s decision to campaign for some House candidates and not for others. Next, we assess the impact of the president’s campaign visits on the electoral success of Republican congressional candidates. We find pragmatic considerations involving the competitiveness of the race and the president’s electoral self interest are very important in increasing the likelihood of a presidential campaign visit, but incumbents ’ party loyalty and presidential support in Congress have no impact. We also find that presidential campaign visits have a significant impact on candidates ’ prospects for success.