1 Integrated Water Resources Modelling of the Upper Thames River Basin

Abstract: The model presented in this paper consists of a continuous hydrologic (physical) model component dynamically coupled with a socio-economic model component of the Upper Thames River basin, located in south-western Ontario, Canada. Two components of the model are linked with a number of feedback loops, implying that physical characteristics both affect, and are affected by, the socio-economic activities they are embedded in. For example, land use change affects infiltration and runoff characteristics of the regional hydrology, which impacts water availability thereby limiting future development and expansion. Feedback loops between physical and socio-economic domains are identified as being responsible for creating the systemic structure that determines the overall behaviour of the basin. Climatic change vulnerability and risk are also assessed with the above model, taking into consideration climatic, physical and socio-economic characteristics of the region. A number of different simulation scenarios are explored, from which key management guidelines are identified. 1