Guatemala: Can Berger Break the Cycle?

In terms of ‘free and fair ’ the Guatemalan first and second round of elections in November and December 2003 were probably the best in 60 years. The paper discusses the key roles played by the international community, Guatemalan election staff and domestic observers in overcoming threats to the process. The elections are viewed within the overall political, social and economic context of Guatemala. If rhetoric were bankable, Oscar Berger, would be beginning his presidency with a very favourable balance. Good appointments to eco-nomic portfolios join a few symbolically important gestures to indigenous and human rights communities. Berger has committed his government to implementation of the 1996 Peace Accord’s political, economic and cul-tural objectives. However, formidable obstacles stand in his path. He inherits an empty treasury from his pred-ecessor Alfonso Portillo and confronts a public service environment of endemic corruption. His political coalition Gran Alianza Nacional (GANA) occupies a minority position in the legislature. Traditional discrimination against the generally impoverished Maya is changing, but too slowly to satisfy the indigenous population and the inter-national community. The paper forecasts that Berger’s administration will be unable to substantially correct sys-temic weaknesses and cultural prejudice, but may lay the foundations for more lasting change by successor gov-ernments. RÉSUM