A diffusion theory model of adoption and substitution for successive generations of high technology products

This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time. There-fore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growtfi. Furthermore, successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass (1969) diffusion model, we de-velop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution. We demonstrate the fore-casting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods. (MARKETING; NEW PRODUCTS