Empirical Laws, Theory Construction and

BIBLIOMETRICSHAS COMMANDED the attention of numerous individuals in library and information science. The measurement of bibliographic information offers the promise of providing a theory that will resolve many practical problems. It is claimed that patterns of author produc-tivity, literature growth rates and related statistical distributions can be used to evaluate authors, assess disciplines and manage collections. Yet, i t is unclear if bibliometrics is merely a method or if it meets the test of a theory in its ability to explain and predict phenomena. This paper examines the properties of bibliometric distributions in a nontechnical manner. Twelve years ago, Pritchard coined the term bzblzornetrzcs and defined i t as “the application of mathematics and statistical methods to books and other media of communication.” ’ Its purpose was: 1. To shed light on the processes of written communication and of the nature and course of development of a discipline (in sofar as this is displayed through written communication), by means of counting and analyzing the various facets of written communication...; 2. The assembling and interpretation of statistics relating to books and periodicals...to demonstrate historical movements, to determine the national or universal research of books and journals, and to ascertain in many local situations the general use of books and journals