Markovian Modeling for Lifetime Prediction and Maintenance Planning of Deteriorating Structures

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a probabilistic model for the service life assessment of deteriorating struc-tures based on a few observed data. Damage evolution is modeled as a semi-Markov process and its formula-tion allows to account for eventual improvements of the structural performance. In this way, the model can be also used to plan maintenance and/or rehabilitation interventions. The proposed procedure is applied to the service life prediction of a bridge pier and to the selection of a suitable preventive maintenance scenario