2007c), Trade Structure as a Constraint to Multilateral And Regional Arrangements

A crucial factor explains the poor economic performance of Sub-Saharan Africa, i.e. the risky market and trade structure that is entailed by commodity dependence, because of the volatility of commodity prices, therefore the volatility of earnings and its negative fiscal effects, which in turn threaten to create poverty traps. This structure is compounded by additional constraints stemming from globalisation, and trade reforms that are conditional on programmes with the international financial institutions (IFIs) and WTO membership. The paper shows that the detrimental factors of commodity dependence and lack of an industrial base, though they constitute crucial obstacles to long-term growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, have not been addressed in depth by the IFI programmes and the WTO rules and negotiations, including albeit welcomed decisions on the enhancing of market access and the removal of agricultural subsidies. The latter, particularly when some form of tariff escalation is maintained, does not transform the commodity-exporting structure of Sub-Saharan Africa. The disappointment with multilateralism that emerged in the 1990s has reinforced the thrust towards regional an