Influence of the size of a nation’s population on performances in athletics

Abstract. Nations with a large population tend to be more successful in international sports competitions than less populous nations. The aim of this study was to examine the mathematical relations between a nation’s population and the performance by its best track and field athletes. The key assumptions in the model were that athletic performances within a nation have a Gaussian distribution, and that the mean and standard deviation of athletic performances are the same for all nations. Performances achieved by the best athletes in a nation were calculated by integrating the equation for the Gaussian distribution, and the predictions of the model were evaluated using long jump competition results obtained from athletics yearbooks. For both men and women, the performance by the best long jumper increased at the rate of about 0.3 m per factor of ten increase in population. Governments of smaller nations that invest in high performance sport therefore have a substantial performance deficit to overcome in order to achieve international success. This study suggests that a nation can increase the likelihood of international success through increasing the participation rate for the sport. 1