Voting on Vouchers: A Socio-Political Analysis

Abstract. This paper analyzes the results of the votes in the referendum in California regarding Proposition 38 in the November 2000 election. This Proposition offered voters the option of replacing the current education financing system with a system of vouchers, eligible at any school. The Proposition was easily defeated, but the pattern of votes across zip codes indicated varying support for the idea of vouchers. Using county voting data and an exit poll of voters, this paper estimates the main determinants of support for, and opposition to, the idea of education vouchers. Counties with higher representations of Republicans, with higher SES, and with lower densities of African American and Hispanic voters were more likely to favor of vouchers. In their reasons for voting for Proposition 38, voters emphasized their own family circumstances – whether or not their children were in private school, the importance of competition, and the notion of freedom of choice outside of government