A Methodology for Evaluating Bus Service Proposals

This paper overviews a study conducted for the Victorian Department of Infrastructure which set out to develop and demonstrate a practical analytical methodology for evaluating new bus service proposals. The paper describes the development of a GIS framework based on the State Cadastre. The approach first makes use of various electronic information sources including the Census, new dwelling approvals, State Planning Scheme and various address files to pin-point the likely location of dwellings in Melbourne and to estimate local area demographics. In the second step, the Victorian Activity and Travel Survey (VATS) and public transport networks are used to estimate the demand for bus travel in each local area. GIS methods are then used to identify and rank areas in greatest need of additional service. Finally, GIS tools are used to estimate patronage changes for new service proposals by aggregating travel demand for residential populations in walk catchments around the routes. This technique enables tactical bus service planning to be made responsive to on-going residential development across metropolitan areas and is sufficiently precise to enable meaningful catchment analysis to be performed in the narrow walk-only catchments which define the major market segment for buses. The methodology is also readily adaptable to other issues in public transport which are discussed