1 How Secure is Our Food? A Risk Analysis of the Threat to the Food Sector

If the food sector is attacked, the likely agents will be chemical, biological or radionuclear (CBRN). We compile a database of international terrorist/criminal activity involving such agents. Based on these data we calculate the likelihood of a catastrophic event using extreme value methods. The current risk of an event leading to 5000 casualties (fatalities and injuries) is between 0.1 and 0.3. However, pronounced non-stationary patterns within our data suggest that the “reoccurrence period ” for such attacks is decreasing every year. Similarly disturbing trends are evident in a broader dataset which is non-specific as to the methods or means of attack. While at the present the likelihood of CBRN events is quite low, given that an attack has occurred, the probability that it involves CBRN agents, increases with the number of causalities. This is consistent with evidence of “fat tails ” in the distribution of CBRN events