THE FUTURE ROLE OF TELEVISION: A Scenario Analysis Study of British TV

Few would deny that television, and the electronic media in Britain are experiencing fundamental change. Historical patterns of media consumption are mutating and new markets are developing for a variety of entertainment and information experiences. Corporate structures, strategic networks and competitor-collaborator relationships are increasingly characterised by their complexity. In this dynamic environment, the future role of television is highly uncertain. This paper considers the role of television in Britain over the next ten years taking note of potential changes in television as an industry and as a medium. Using scenario analysis as a methodology, the paper draws on the findings of interviews and workshops with senior executives and opinion leaders from across the British television industry and related sectors. This is one of the few occasions where scenario analysis has been used at an industry level (rather than within an individual company) to bring together competitors and collaborators to develop a set of narratives about what the future might hold over the next decade