An Assessment of Bird Strike Risk at National Level. Paper presented at the 27 th International Bird Strike Committee Meeting

Bird strike is widely regarded with increasing concern, for reasons including the rising populations of certain hazardous species and the replacement of turboprop fleets by jets. The risk assessment described here was commissioned by the UK CAA to provide an informed basis for regulation. The study coincided with legislation requiring aircraft commanders to report all strikes, rather than only those causing damage, and a subsidiary aim was to assess the effectiveness of this mandate in improving the completeness and accuracy of reporting. The level of and trends in risk were assessed from historic data. Variations in reporting rate confound the picture, but the indications are that risk per movement is increasing. This is of concern, as the aviation community generally aims to reduce risks per movement over time, such that accident rates do not rise despite traffic growth. Also, while bird strike accounts for only a small fraction of the overall risk of flight, the risk is greater than that for other ‘hot topics’, such as runway incursions, that have been subject to recent safety campaigns. The implications are that further risk reduction measures need to be considered – an argument strengthened by an evaluation of the financial cost of strikes. The major influences on risk were identified and corresponding measures to reduce risk suggested