In February of 2008, SurveyUSA polled 600 people in each state and asked who they would vote for in either head-to-head match-up: Obama vs. McCain, and Clinton vs. McCain. Here we integrate these polls with prior information; how each state voted in comparison to the national outcome in the 2004 election. We use Bayesian methods to merge prior and poll data, weighting each by its respective information. The variance for our poll data incorporates both sampling variability and variability due to time before the election, estimated using pre-election poll data from the 2000 and 2004 elections. The variance for our prior data is estimated using the results of the past nine presidential elections. The union of prior and poll data results in a p...
Abstract This article reports new empirical evidence on probabilistic polling, which asks persons to...
In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observa...
ii This project concerns the prediction of the 2004 presidential election in the United States of Am...
A wide range of potentially useful data are available for election forecasting: the results of previ...
We describe a Bayesian model for analyses of the 2008 presidential election polls that incorporates ...
We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential elec...
We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential elec...
This paper uses pre-election polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in the states and...
In the PollyVote, we evaluated the combination principle to forecast the five U.S. presidential elec...
Election surveys have several purposes, including forecasting election outcomes and studying the dis...
This article presents a data-driven Bayesian model used to predict the state-by-state wi...
This article reports new empirical evidence on probabilistic polling, which asks persons to state in...
In averaging forecasts within and across four component methods (i.e., polls, prediction markets, ex...
In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, exp...
We present an evaluation of a project to forecast the 2004 presidential election by applying the com...
Abstract This article reports new empirical evidence on probabilistic polling, which asks persons to...
In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observa...
ii This project concerns the prediction of the 2004 presidential election in the United States of Am...
A wide range of potentially useful data are available for election forecasting: the results of previ...
We describe a Bayesian model for analyses of the 2008 presidential election polls that incorporates ...
We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential elec...
We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential elec...
This paper uses pre-election polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in the states and...
In the PollyVote, we evaluated the combination principle to forecast the five U.S. presidential elec...
Election surveys have several purposes, including forecasting election outcomes and studying the dis...
This article presents a data-driven Bayesian model used to predict the state-by-state wi...
This article reports new empirical evidence on probabilistic polling, which asks persons to state in...
In averaging forecasts within and across four component methods (i.e., polls, prediction markets, ex...
In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, exp...
We present an evaluation of a project to forecast the 2004 presidential election by applying the com...
Abstract This article reports new empirical evidence on probabilistic polling, which asks persons to...
In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observa...
ii This project concerns the prediction of the 2004 presidential election in the United States of Am...