[ 103] Performance prediction and diagnosis in two

In complex, job-shop like production departments it is usually very difficult to pre-dict the near-future logistic performance as well as to explain or diagnose objec-tively why and how a certain performance has been achieved. Presents a predic-tion and diagnosis method that has been developed and tested in two production departments. Describes how the method provides realistic logistic performance targets in the short term with respect to the throughput of a pro-duction department and order completion times. The method also quantitatively determines ex post the impact of occurred distur-bances on the realized perfor-mance. In the pilot project the method provided a clearer insight into relationships between logistic key vari-ables, gave decision support to the capacity allocation decision, and generated reliable performance targets for the short term. More importantly, the actual per-formance became more open to discussion due to the objective explanation of the achieved performance, which opens the way to perfor-mance improvements