Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert viewsabout prospects for advancement. Under Review at Technological Forecasting and Social Change

In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with lithium metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion batteries. Averaging across experts we find that U.S. government expenditures of $150M/yr lead to a 66 % chance of achieving a battery that costs less than $200/kWh, and a 20 % chance for a cost of $90/kWh or less. Reducing the cost of batteries from a baseline of $384 to $200 could lead to a savings in the cost of reducing greenhouse gasses of about $100 Billion in 2050