Derivation of Probability Distributions for Risk Assessment

Derivation of Probability Distributions for Risk Assessment Risk assessment is more and more widely applied in different areas. The essence of a risk assessment is to estimate the consequences of adverse events and their probability. For a quantitative judgment of the risks, it is necessary to estimate the uncertainty of the variables that govern the events. The uncertainty is commonly expressed as probability distributions. One of the main problems for the practical application of risk assessments is that the needed probability distributions, usually, are not readily available. These have to be derived from other existing information and knowledge. Several methods have been proposed in the literature for the derivation of probability distributions. The choice of an appropriate method depends on what information and knowledge is available. Some of these methods are used widely while others, being unconventional or still under development, have been less commonly applied. There is a lack of a software package that integrates those of the existing dis