Why European Citizens Will Reject the EU Constitution

This study tests competing hypotheses about popular support for European integration. It introduces anti-immigration sentiments as a key variable for understanding reluctance towards integration. Drawing on sur-vey data, it is found that anti-immigration sentiments, economic considerations, and the evaluation of do-mestic governments are the strongest predictors of both support for integration and individuals ’ propensity to vote “Yes ” in a referendum on the enlargement of the EU. When extrapolating the findings to future ref-erendums on issues of European integration, it may be predicted that such referendums will result in a “No” outcome under the conditions of high levels of anti-immigration sentiments, pessimistic economic out-looks, and/or unpopularity of a government