Patterns of Lowest-Low Fertility in Hong Kong

The earlier distinct fertility regimes, “developed ” and “developing ” are increasingly disappearing in global comparisons of fertility levels--- convergence towards low fertility (Bongaarts and Bulatao 2000; Lutz et al. 2001; Wilson 2001). The spread of below-replacement fertility to formerly high fertility countries has occurred at a remarkably rapid pace. A global convergence of fertility indicators that has been quicker than the convergence of many other socio-economic characteristics was (Billari and Kohler, 2002). Fertility levels may not naturally stabilize close to replacement level as earlier notion suggested, they may continue and follow the course declining to below 1.3. The new aspect of current low and lowest-low fertility patterns is that the postponement of childbearing – particularly for the first births – has emerged as a crucial determinant of differences in fertility levels among developed countries (Billari and Kohler, 2002). Reasons of such rapid delay of childbearing include increased incentives to invest in higher education, labor market experiences, uncertainty in earl