Small Group Dynamics and Foreign Policymaking: Evidence from Iterated Prisoners Dilemma Game Experiments. Typescript

Because important foreign policy decisions are usually crafted by small groups of policymakers, it is important to examine the effects of group dynamics and features of groups on the choices those groups make. Using additional empirical data extracted from an experiment designed to analyze group conflict and cooperation, features of groups dynamics and evaluation (the extent to which groups experience internal conflict or controversy about what choices to make and whether groups evaluate prior outcomes as succeeding or failing) are examined to assess their effects on the decisions those groups made in the context of Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma (RDP) games. An empirical analysis of the behavior of groups of experimental subjects suggests that groups which experience conflict or controversy within the group about what decision to make are significantly more likely to make competitive (non-cooperative) choices in the RPD context. Empirical results are less clear about the relationship between how groups evaluate prior outcomes and whether they experience more intra-group conflict. However, the analysis does suggest that it may be worthwhile to develop new experiments to better assess the relationships between these group features and group choice.