Add to ORKGThis paper is a replication and extension of the DeSart and Holbrook presidential election forecast model to gubernatorial elections. It examines a simple model with three variables: September pre-election polls, prior election outcomes and presidential approval. The model generates reasonable forecasts, but falls quite short of its presidential election counterpart. However, it does show that presidential approval in the third quarter of the election year does indeed have a significant contribution to the model
Presidential election forecasting models may miss the mark, sometimes grossly, as the 1992 contest d...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
Prediction markets now cover many important political events. The 2004 presi-dential election featur...
This paper presents the results of the first a priori test of a gubernatorial election forecast mode...
Objective. We provide an examination and update of a presidential election forecasting model that we...
This paper uses pre-election polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in the states and...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
As the experience of 2000 shows, forecasting presidential elections is an inexact science. Everybody...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
Abstract. Traditional election forecasting models are estimated from time-series data on relevant va...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular twoparty vote shares ...
Election is an important part of political and social science. It can be defined in the field of Gam...
The Big-Issue Model predicts election outcomes based on voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability t...
Population forecasts suggest that the redistribution of the electoral college following Census 2010 ...
In this article I descnbe a model for forecasting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections. The m...
Presidential election forecasting models may miss the mark, sometimes grossly, as the 1992 contest d...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
Prediction markets now cover many important political events. The 2004 presi-dential election featur...
This paper presents the results of the first a priori test of a gubernatorial election forecast mode...
Objective. We provide an examination and update of a presidential election forecasting model that we...
This paper uses pre-election polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in the states and...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
As the experience of 2000 shows, forecasting presidential elections is an inexact science. Everybody...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
Abstract. Traditional election forecasting models are estimated from time-series data on relevant va...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular twoparty vote shares ...
Election is an important part of political and social science. It can be defined in the field of Gam...
The Big-Issue Model predicts election outcomes based on voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability t...
Population forecasts suggest that the redistribution of the electoral college following Census 2010 ...
In this article I descnbe a model for forecasting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections. The m...
Presidential election forecasting models may miss the mark, sometimes grossly, as the 1992 contest d...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
Prediction markets now cover many important political events. The 2004 presi-dential election featur...