Hybrid Influence Diagrams for Threat Identification

Abstract. An influence diagram is a dual graphical and numerical rep-resentation of a decision problem under uncertainty. An influence dia-gram model that simultaneously incorporates discrete and continuous chance variables is utilized to consider both active and passive signals into the decision-making process to determine the optimal action to take against a potential threat. The proposed model incorporates non-Gaussian continuous chance variables using an approximation with mix-tures of truncated exponentials functions. An example requiring an air-craft to use observations of an IFF transponder and a radar pulse repeti-tion signal to determine whether or not to fire upon a target is presented.