The risk of death by age, sex, and smoking status in the United States: Putting health risks in context

It is difficult to read a newspaper or magazine, watch television, or surf the Internet without encountering a multitude of competing messages about the health risks one faces. At best, the sheer volume of risk information confuses some people (“which risk should I pay attention to?”). More concerning, however, is that it may lead other people to make unwise choices (eg, deciding that prostate cancer screening is more important than stopping smoking) or to become cynical about health risks in general (“why pay attention at all if everything is so dangerous?”). The problem with risk information is that it is often incomplete and provided without context. For example, a 2006 press release from the Food and Drug Administration that announced the approval of a cervical cancer vaccine stated that “there are 3,700 deaths attributed to cervical cancer in the United States each year ” ( 1), and a disease advocacy group Web site that highlights the danger of pros tate cancer stated that “in 2007, more than 27000 men will die from the disease ” ( 2). Although both messages employed a common communication tactic — using large numbers to captur