8th ASCE Specialty Conference on Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural ReliabilityPMC2000-229

A seismic hazard analysis model is used for the prediction of potential damaging effects of probable future activities at the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ). In particular, the significance of such activities in causing damage to unreinforced masonry (URM) residential buildings in Northern Illinois is presented. A plane source seismic hazard analysis model is adopted and calibrated to be compatible with the fault characteristics at NMSZ. The study shows that considering a 50-year return period for a major earthquake in NMSZ, the level of acceleration experienced in Northern Illinois will be about 0.02g. This will cause slight damage to about 1 % of URM buildings. For 200-year and 500-year return periods, the accelerations will be 0.06g and 0.07g, respectively. The corresponding slight damage effects will be to about 18 % and 23 % of URM buildings