Add to ORKGThis paper presents the results of the first a priori test of a gubernatorial election forecast model that I developed (2006), which is based on the DeSart and Holbrook presidential election forecast model. It examines a simple model with three variables: September pre-election polls, prior election outcomes and presidential approval. For 2006, the model generated reasonable forecasts, and correctly predicted the winner in all but one state (of those for which data was available). The robustness of the presidential approval variable affirms the influence of national-level forces in gubernatorial elections
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
In this article I descnbe a model for forecasting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections. The m...
In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observa...
This paper is a replication and extension of the DeSart and Holbrook presidential election forecast ...
This paper uses pre-election polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in the states and...
Objective. We provide an examination and update of a presidential election forecasting model that we...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
Abstract. Traditional election forecasting models are estimated from time-series data on relevant va...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular twoparty vote shares ...
As the experience of 2000 shows, forecasting presidential elections is an inexact science. Everybody...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index ” for forecasting U.S. presidential electio...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
In this article I descnbe a model for forecasting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections. The m...
In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observa...
This paper is a replication and extension of the DeSart and Holbrook presidential election forecast ...
This paper uses pre-election polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in the states and...
Objective. We provide an examination and update of a presidential election forecasting model that we...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
Abstract. Traditional election forecasting models are estimated from time-series data on relevant va...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular twoparty vote shares ...
As the experience of 2000 shows, forecasting presidential elections is an inexact science. Everybody...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index ” for forecasting U.S. presidential electio...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
In this article I descnbe a model for forecasting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections. The m...
In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observa...