Mass vaccination programmes aim to maintain the effective reproduction number R of an infection below unity. We describe methods for monitoring the value of R using surveillance data. The models are based on branching processes in which R is identified with the offspring mean. We derive unconditional likelihoods for the offspring mean using data on outbreak size and outbreak duration. We also discuss Bayesian methods, implemented by Metropolis–Hastings sampling. We investigate by simulation the validity of the models with respect to depletion of susceptibles and under-ascertainment of cases. The methods are illustrated using surveillance data on measles in the USA. 1
Background. Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has become great co...
Mathematical modelling has become a useful and commonly-used tool in the analysis of infectious dise...
The basic reproduction number is a key parameter determining whether an infectious disease will pers...
Mass vaccination programmes aim to maintain the effective reproduction number R of an infection belo...
We describe a stochastic model based on a branching process for analyzing surveillance data of infec...
AbstractA single-type Bienaymé–Galton–Watson branching process (BGWBP) with a generalized power seri...
We propose a stochastic model for the analysis of time series of disease counts as collected in typi...
One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease is the reproductio...
Measles is a highly transmissible disease and is one of the leading causes of death among young chil...
Earlier research has suggested that approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) makes it possible to fit ...
Resurgent outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases that have previously been controlled or eliminat...
Monitoring a population for a disease requires the hosts to be sampled and tested for the pathogen. ...
Measles is a highly transmissible disease and is one of the leading causes of death among young chil...
Controlling an emerging communicable disease requires prompt adoption of measures such as quarantine...
If the offspring distribution in a branching process is a power series distribution, then, condition...
Background. Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has become great co...
Mathematical modelling has become a useful and commonly-used tool in the analysis of infectious dise...
The basic reproduction number is a key parameter determining whether an infectious disease will pers...
Mass vaccination programmes aim to maintain the effective reproduction number R of an infection belo...
We describe a stochastic model based on a branching process for analyzing surveillance data of infec...
AbstractA single-type Bienaymé–Galton–Watson branching process (BGWBP) with a generalized power seri...
We propose a stochastic model for the analysis of time series of disease counts as collected in typi...
One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease is the reproductio...
Measles is a highly transmissible disease and is one of the leading causes of death among young chil...
Earlier research has suggested that approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) makes it possible to fit ...
Resurgent outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases that have previously been controlled or eliminat...
Monitoring a population for a disease requires the hosts to be sampled and tested for the pathogen. ...
Measles is a highly transmissible disease and is one of the leading causes of death among young chil...
Controlling an emerging communicable disease requires prompt adoption of measures such as quarantine...
If the offspring distribution in a branching process is a power series distribution, then, condition...
Background. Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has become great co...
Mathematical modelling has become a useful and commonly-used tool in the analysis of infectious dise...
The basic reproduction number is a key parameter determining whether an infectious disease will pers...