‘Earth System Governance ’ analysis

In recent years a number of different energy scenarios and technological pathways have been developed for China. On the one hand, standard scenario projections show that if China followed business-as-usual development trends, the country’s growing economy, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have the potential to eclipse the results of even deep emission cuts in western developed countries. On the other hand, alternative low-emission pathways illustrate that China has the potential to ‘leapfrog ’ energy generation technology as well as reduce energy consumption through efficiency and conservation measures. In addition to requiring technical feasibility, other factors such as government policies, institutions, investment patterns, funding for research & development and consumer behaviour are crucial for innovation, development and diffusion of renewable technologies and implementation of efficiency measures. Therefore the transition to a sustainable energy future is increasingly being recognized as a governance issue. In this paper the analytical framework of Earth System Governance is applied to present a governance perspective of China’s energy development (excluding transport energy). The goal is to show the causal links between trends in China and global, national and local dynamics acting either in a way conducive to or as barriers to a sustainable energy future. The analysis also explains the relationships between institutional arrangements and actors inside and outside of China. Finally, the paper shows in which areas improved energy cooperation in form of partnerships between China and the rest of the world are possible, necessary and mutually beneficial