Aggregation of individual trees and patches in forest succession models: Capturing variability with height structured, random, spatial distributions. Theoretical Population Biology 54(3

Individual based, stochastic forest patch models have the potential to realistically describe forest dynamics. However, they are mathematically intransparent and need long computing times. We simplified such a forest patch model by aggregating the individual trees on many patches to height-structured tree populations with theoretical random dispersions over the whole simulated forest area. The resulting distribution-based model produced results similar to those of the patch model under a wide range of conditions. We concluded that the height-structured tree dispersion is an adequate population descriptor to capture the stochastic variability in a forest and that the new approach is generally applicable to any patch model. The simplified model required only 4.10 of the computing time needed by the patch model. Hence, this new model type is well-suited for applications where a large number of dynamic forest simulations is required.] 1998 Academic Press Key Words: forest succession; individual based model; stochastic model; patch model; aggregation; structured population; model simplification; spatial distribution