Disaster Mitigation of Debris Flows, Slope Failures and Landslides 47 Incipient Landslides in the Jhelum Valley, Pakistan Following the 8th October 2005 Earthquake

Extensive landsliding was a notable feature of the 8th October 2005 earthquake in India and Pakistan. The landslides ranged in size from small cut-slope failures to a rock avalanche with an estimated volume of about 80 million m3. In this paper we examine two key aspects of the landslides associated with the earthquake. First we attempt to estimate the number of fatalities associated with landsliding. We suggest that this is of the order of 26,500 people including 300 in India. As such this represents probably the third largest landslide disaster in recorded history. In the second part of the paper we examine the widespread occurrence of cracked slopes the Kashmir area of Pakistan. We attempt to explain this phenomenon by showing that prior to the earthquake the precipitation input was unusually low, resulting in slopes that were essentially dry at the time of the event. We suggest that these slopes are extremely vulnerable to reactivation during forthcoming wet seasons. As a result, there is a high level of threat to the population of Kashmir, and the landslides represent a significant potential source of problems during the rehabilitation phase in Pakistan