Covariance Components Models for Longitudinal Family Data

A longitudinal family study is an epidemiological design that involves repeated measurements over time in a sample that includes families. Such studies, that may also include relative pairs and unrelated individuals, allow closer investigation of not only the factors that cause a disease to arise, but also the genetic and environmental determinants that modulate the subsequent progression of that disease. Knowledge of such determinants may pay high dividends in terms of prognostic assessment and in the development of new treatments that may be tailored to the prognostic profile of individual patients. Unfortunately longitudinal family studies are difficult to analyse. They conflate the complex within-family correlation structure of a cross-sectional family study with the correlation over time that is intrinsic to longitudinal repeated measures. Here we describe an approach to analysis that is relatively straightforward to implement, yet is flexible in its application. It represents a natural extension of a Gibbs-sampling-based approach to the analysis of cross-sectional family studies that we have described previously. The approach can be applied to pedigrees o