Modeling Migration Effects on Agricultural Lands: A Growth Equilibrium Model

We estimate a system-of-equations model designed to measure the interaction between intertemporal patterns of changes in population, employment, and agricultural land densities. The model is applied to West Virginia for the 1990S1999 period. Consistent with recent findings on migration patterns, the results show that jobs followed people. New jobs were captured by commuters, while agricultural land losses were occurring in the commuters ’ counties of origin or bedroom communities. However, counties with relatively more profitable and concentrated agricultural enterprises were less suscep-tible to alternative land use pressure than counties with less productive or fragmented agricultural land. Elasticities indicate population change is elastic, whereas employment and agricultural land density changes are inelastic to factors affecting them. Growth management, when combined with agricultural land retention programs, may be most effective at preserving agricultural land in high growth or potential growth areas. Key Words: agricultural land, growth equilibrium modeling, land use change, population and employment growth Urban and rural economic structure in the United States has changed significantly over the past two decades. Previous studies have found that regional growth patterns are in part determined by “rural renaissance ” and “urban flight, ” a shifting economic base, and a change in employment opportunitie