Potential Climate Change Effects on Warm-Season Livestock Production in the Great Plains

Climate changes suggested by some global climate models (GCM) may impact the economic viability of livestock production systems in the Great Plains region of the United States. Increased ambient temperatures lead to depressed voluntary feed intake (VFI), reduced weight gains, and lower milk production during summer periods. Animals are somewhat able to adapt to higher temperatures with prolonged exposure but production losses will occur in response to higher temperature events. This report presents the potential impacts of climatic change on the VFI of swine and confined beef cattle and the VFI and milk production of dairy cattle. Animal production-response algorithms from research results are combined with climatological data and GCM output to assess potential impacts. Algorithms used are based on the most recent National Research Council publications on the Nutrient Requirements of Swine, Beef Cattle and Dairy Cattle and related publications. Geographic variations in the relative change in temperature and other climate variables associated with two GCM scenarios are identified for the Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas region and linked to potential impacts on livestock production. Detailed analyses project economic losses for these livestock classes to increase in most areas during the summer period, in some cases quite markedly. Exploration of the effects of climate changes on livestock should allow producers to adjust management strategies to reduce the potential economic losses due to environmental changes