AGRICULTURAL MODELING ISSUES IN TRANSITION NATIONS UNDER EU ENLARGEMENT USING COMPLEMENTARY MODELS by

Numerical models are useful in analyzing multiple policy shocks like EU enlargement. Model user decisions on how to introduce key aspects of EU enlargement are critical to the impacts. This paper examines how well five key aspects of enlargement fit into complementary models developed for five Central and Eastern European nations. Some policy shocks like changes in support prices fit well into the models. Direct payments can also be examined, but require model users to decide how they influence producer behavior. Other aspects do not fit well into the modeling frameworks. Examples include foreign land ownership and improved product quality resulting from EU structural funds. General equilibrium models can analyze labor market adjustments, but users need to be aware of the influence of assumed labor market closure on the policy results. Key Words: agriculture, EU structural funds, transition economie