SIMULATION OF CLIMATE OF THE MOSCOW REGION IN XXI CENTURY WITH SIMPLE URBAN CANOPY MODEL

In view of growing public attention to modern ecological and climatic problems, one of the most important problems of meteorology and climatology is to develop realistic scenarios of future climatic changes. The modern general circulation (GCM) and regional atmospheric (RM) models allow to reproduce meteorological fields with the spatial grid resolution about 50×50 and 5x5 km, respectively. Such model resolution is, unfortunately, not allow to enough adequately describing the climatic condition of the cities. Taking into account big differences of meteorological conditions in- and outside of the cities the prediction uncertainties provided by GCM and RM models for cities may be relatively large. Within the framework of this study, the simple model allowing to reproduce climatic conditions of the city was developed. It was applied to predict temperature regime in Moscow region in Russia for the middle and the end of XXI century. It based on the data provided by GCM and RM models and allows to predict meteorological condition with spatial resolution about 0,5 km×0,5 km. 1. Model Description The hierarchical structure of developed model is the following... Within the framework of model of the general circulation of atmosphere (GSM) the global climate (a condition of July) for a modern climate, the middle of XX