Keynote lecture at the ICWE12 Cairns, Australia 2007 1 Hurricane Hazard Modeling: The Past, Present and Future

Hurricane hazard models have become a commonly used tool for assessing hurricane risk. The type of hurricane risk considered varies with the user and can be an economic risk, as in the case of the insurance and banking industries, a wind exceedance risk, a flood risk, etc. The most common uses for hurricane hazard models today include: (i) Simulation of wind speed and direction data for use with wind tunnel test data for the estimation of wind loads vs. return period for design of structural systems and cladding (ii) Estimation of design wind speeds for use in buildings codes and standards (iii) Coastal hazard risk modeling (storm surge elevations and wave heights vs. return period) (iv) Insurance loss estimation (probable maximum losses, average annual losses) This paper presents a brief overview of the history of the modeling process, concentrating on the modeling of the wind, as it is the key input to each of the examples presented above. We discuss improvements in wind field modeling, modeling uncertainties, and possible future directions of the hurricane risk modeling process