interception schemes in the River Murray

Abstract: The MSM-BIGMOD model of the River Murray is a comprehensive flow and salinity routing model, used to assess the impacts of potential changes in river management on river flow and salinity levels. The modelling suite consists of a combination of two models (MSM and BIGMOD) that have been developed over a period of years. Sensitivity analysis of the model is particularly important, given that decisions are made about management of the River Murray based on outputs from the model. The large number of model inputs and parameters arising from the inclusion of the many tributaries, storages, drains, and diversions pose a challenge for traditional sensitivity analysis methods, such as one-at-a-time parameter perturbation methods. The Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis and the expanded Pareto Optimal Management Option Rank Equivalence (POMORE) are innovative methods of sensitivity analysis developed especially for use with complex models used for decision-making. The methods assess the sensitivity of management decisions based on model output, to changes in the model inputs, in order to provide a sensitivity analysis in the decision context. MORE searches the parameter space to find parameter combinations that result in an equal preference of two management options that are closest in Euclidean distance to the calibrated model parameters. POMORE searches similarly for parameter combinations that result in an equal preference of two management options; however, it uses a Pareto optima