Add to ORKGLet’s look at an application of Bayes ’ theorem to the analysis of cognitive processes. First we need to introduce some data. Research on human decision making investigates, e.g., how physicians make a medical diagnosis (Casscells et al. 1978): Example If a test to detect a disease whose prevalence is 1/1000 has a false-positive rate of 5%, what is the chance that a person found to have a positive result actually has the disease, assuming you know nothing about the person’s symptoms or signs
Clinical diagnosis is often a complex task of decision making in the face of uncertainty. Diagnosis ...
Base rate neglect refers to people's apparent tendency to underweight or even ignore base rate infor...
One of the most widely accepted findings of the heuristics-and-biases program is that people making...
Let’s look at an application of Bayes ’ theorem to the analysis of cognitive processes. First we nee...
Establishing an accurate diagnosis is crucial in everyday clinical practice. It forms the starting p...
Most neuropsychologists are aware that, given the specificity and sensitivity of a test and an estim...
It is often the case that a clinician has diagnostic values such as sensitivity and specificity avai...
The validity of clinical diagnoses is a fundamental topic in clinical psychology, because now there ...
Cognitive systems, whether human or engineered, must often reason from and act on probabilistic info...
This paper introduces the concept of vector diagnostics. In contrast to the conventional approach wh...
For rare diseases, people tend to intuitively overestimate the probability of being sick after havin...
In recent years, a number of studies of the use of computer programs in diagnosis have been performe...
Several norms for how people should assess a question's usefulness have been proposed, notably Bayes...
As outlined in Part I of this two-part series, the consequences arising from Type 1 and Type 2 error...
The dissertation explores the problem of rigorously quantifying the performance of a fault diagnosis...
Clinical diagnosis is often a complex task of decision making in the face of uncertainty. Diagnosis ...
Base rate neglect refers to people's apparent tendency to underweight or even ignore base rate infor...
One of the most widely accepted findings of the heuristics-and-biases program is that people making...
Let’s look at an application of Bayes ’ theorem to the analysis of cognitive processes. First we nee...
Establishing an accurate diagnosis is crucial in everyday clinical practice. It forms the starting p...
Most neuropsychologists are aware that, given the specificity and sensitivity of a test and an estim...
It is often the case that a clinician has diagnostic values such as sensitivity and specificity avai...
The validity of clinical diagnoses is a fundamental topic in clinical psychology, because now there ...
Cognitive systems, whether human or engineered, must often reason from and act on probabilistic info...
This paper introduces the concept of vector diagnostics. In contrast to the conventional approach wh...
For rare diseases, people tend to intuitively overestimate the probability of being sick after havin...
In recent years, a number of studies of the use of computer programs in diagnosis have been performe...
Several norms for how people should assess a question's usefulness have been proposed, notably Bayes...
As outlined in Part I of this two-part series, the consequences arising from Type 1 and Type 2 error...
The dissertation explores the problem of rigorously quantifying the performance of a fault diagnosis...
Clinical diagnosis is often a complex task of decision making in the face of uncertainty. Diagnosis ...
Base rate neglect refers to people's apparent tendency to underweight or even ignore base rate infor...
One of the most widely accepted findings of the heuristics-and-biases program is that people making...