ChangeWe Can Believe In? Using Political Science to Predict Policy Change in the Obama Presidency

ABSTRACT Based on the results of the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, an analysis using theories and methods of modern political science (pivotal politics theory, ideal point estimates, and bootstrap simulations) suggests that the conditions are ripe for real policy change. Specifically, we should expect policies to move significantly in a liberal direction, few or no policies should move in a conservative direction, and many of the outcomes will bemoderate or somewhat to the left of center (rather than far left). Further-more, the predictions depend as much on partisan polarization and the results of the con-gressional election as they do on the outcome of presidential election itself. “We can choose hope over fear, unity over division, the promise of change over the power of the status quo.” —Barack Obama, Canton, Ohio, October 27, 2008 It is unfortunately all too common for presidents to failto deliver on their campaign promises, ultimately disap-pointing both supporters and the general public alike—occasionally to the point of electoral retribution. GeorgeH.W. Bush couldn’t deliver on his promise to hold the line on taxes even thoughhe pledged: “readmy lips: no new taxes.” He was replaced by Bill Clinton, whose first term was marked by a visible failure to reform health care. Eight years after GeorgeW