SOUTHERN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS JULY, 1979 POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF NEW CARIBBEAN-AREA WINTER FRESH TOMATO AND CUCUMBER SUPPLIES ON THE U.S. INDUSTRY

U.S. consumption of fresh tomatoes and cu- considered representative for the 1976-77 sea-cumbers during the winter season (defined son. Then solutions were developed with theherein as November through May) is typically addition of three levels of new Caribbean-area about 1,300 million and 370 million pounds, re- supplies assumed to enter the U.S. marketing spectively. Florida has long been the major channel at Pompano, Florida. The impacts ofdomestic supplier, and other states, principally these new imports were estimated as the differ-Texas, California, and South Carolina, provide ence between the benchmark solution and the the remaining domestic winter season produc- three additional-supply solutions. Differences tion. Mexico also is a major supplier of toma- in equilibrium farm level prices and production toes and cucumbers in the U.S. during the win- were defined as the effects on producers. Ef-ter. Before the 1962 embargo on Cuban-U.S. fects on consumers consisted of changes in trade, Cuba, too, was an important source. wholesale level prices and quantity of con-Most studies on competition in supplying sumption. winter fresh vegetables to the U.S. focus on Florida and Mexico [2,3,4]. Cuban supplies Demand have not been considered a factor in any of o these studies. Yet the effect that reestablish-ment of trade with Cuba could have on U.S. Region name Proportion of total pop.3 Receiving city4 producers and consumers has been a question Northeast.2469 New York CitySoutheast.1902 Atlantaof concern. The author analyzes the potential LaStates.1370 Cleveland impact of new Caribbean-area supplies of win- Upper Midwest.1501 Chicago ter fresh tomatoes and cucumbers on the pre- Lower Midwest.1054 Dallas sent U.S. market. New supplies could result West.1704 San Francisco from renewed Cuban-U.S. trade or from trade Monthly equations for total U.S. demand with other Caribbean-area countries. were estimated for November through May(Table 1) [7,8]. The price variable was the average PROCEDURE