Political Analysis, 8:1 Postestimation Uncertainty in Limited Dependent Variable Models

Many political science research articles that use limited dependent variable models re-port estimated quantities, in particular, fitted probabilities, predicted probabilities, and functions of such probabilities, without indicating that such estimates are subject to un-certainty. This practice, along with the reporting of “percentage correctly predicted, ” can overstate the precision of reported results. In light of this, the present article describes a variety of measures of uncertainty that authors can include alongside estimates gener-ated by limited dependent variable models. It also proposes an alternative to “percentage correctly predicted ” and illustrates its calculations with congressional cosponsorship data from Krehbiel (1995).