Memory Effects Induced by Dependence on Initial Conditions and Ergodicity of Transport in Heterogeneous Media

Abstract. [1] For transport in statistically homogeneous random velocity fields with properties that are routinely assumed in stochastic groundwater models, the one-particle dispersion (i.e. second central moment of the ensemble average concentration for a point source) is a “memory-free ” quantity independent of initial conditions. Nonergodic be-havior of large initial plumes, as manifest in deviations of actual solute dispersion from one-particle dispersion, is associated with a “memory term ” consisting of correlations be-tween initial positions and displacements of solute molecules. Reliable numerical exper-iments show that increasing the source dimensions has two opposite effects: it reduces the uncertainty related to the randomness of center of mass, but, at the same time, it yields large memory terms. The memory effects increase with the source dimension and depend on its shape and orientation. Large narrow sources oriented transverse to the mean flow direction yield ergodic behavior with respect to the one-particle dispersion of the longitudinal dispersion and nonergodic behavior of the transverse dispersion, whereas for large longitudinal sources the longitudinal dispersion behaves nonergodically and the trans-verse dispersion ergodically. Such memory effects are significantly large over hundreds of heterogeneity scales and should therefore be considered in practical applications, as for instance calibration of model parameters, forecasting, identification of the contam-inant source