Migration Patterns in The Northern Great Plains

Economic conditions in this nation and throughout the world are imposing external pres-sures on the Northern Great Plains Region' through natural resource development. Develop-ment of the coal resources in the area center around strip mining and on-site electrical genera-tion with potential for coal gasification and liquification plants. Population change is a necessary consideration when estimating the overall economic and social impact due to coal development in rural areas. Population estimates are required to forecast the infrastructure adjust-ments and planning requirements associated with provision of services in communities facing massive development. This paper reports results and policy implica-tions of two migration models (outmigration and inmigration) estimated for the rural Northern Great Plains Region [Lewis]. The objectives of the model are to estimate flows of people into or out of a State Economic Area (SEA) by source and destination as a function of local economic conditions. When combined, the net change in population due to migration can be calculated. Conversely, the models may be used to estimate the combination of local economic conditions necessary to produce a desired addition to the local labor force. It is assumed that people move to increase their well-being, which may be expressed as a function of income and amenities (climate, scenery, Eugene P. Lewis is a community development specialist a