WEATHER FORECASTING AND THE PRINCIPLES OF COMPLEX COGNITIVE SYSTEMS

This presentation will illustrate some of the principles for the design of complex cognitive systems that were manifested in a recent project on weather forecasting (Hoffman, et al., 2000). One focus here is on how technologies and workspaces can facilitate or interfere with knowledge-sharing. A second focus is the notion of methodological opportunism. This is illustrated by a discussion of a new knowledge elicitation method, the Cognitive Modeling Procedure, which is intended to support the rapid refinement and behavioral validation (in the field setting) of macrocognitive models of practitioner reasoning