Currency crises in Asia : A multivariate logit approach

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. We extract a full list of currency crisis indicators from the literature, apply factor analysis to combine the indicators, and use these factors as explanatory variables in logit models which are estimated for the period 1970:01–2001:12. The qual-ity of the EWS is assessed both in-sample and out-of-sample. We find that money growth (M1 and M2), national savings, and import growth correlate with currency crises